Monday, November 13, 2006

From champs to chumps, in three short years

This blog, of course, is chiefly concerned with the goings-on of the footballing world; but very occasionally, it will branch out to discuss one or two of the author's other sporting passions. For just as the fortunes of England's football team frequently provide a mixture of hope and torment, so do those of the nation's cricket and rugby union sides: and it is to the latter that we turn today. For following Saturday afternoon's humiliation at the hands of Argentina, English rugby now finds itself at comfortably its lowest ebb since before the revolution instigated by Geoff Cooke, and which would ultimately lead to World Cup glory in Sydney three years ago, kicked in during the months following England's inept elimination from the inauguaral World Cup in 1987.

Predictably, one man has been singled out as being responsible for the national team's astonishing fall from grace: head coach, Andy Robinson. Robinson, it must be acknowledged, has long borne the appearance of a man out of his depth, and promoted well beyond his station: during his time at the helm, there has never been a sense that he really knew how to reinvigorate the world champions, and take them in a new direction. Moreover, there must even be some degree of doubt as to his true coaching credentials: for although he led Bath to a glorious, one-off triumph away to Brive in the 1998 Heineken Cup final, their results during most of the rest of his time in charge were distinctly underwhelming.

But it would be woefully unfair, and entirely insufficient, simply to lay the blame for England's pathetic state wholly upon Robinson's woebegone shoulders: the causes lie far deeper, and the seeds of his side's downfall were sown before he even took over. The red rose's triumph in Australia was down in no small part to the policy of Robinson's predecessor, Sir Clive Woodward: namely, to continually select a settled, experienced side, and allow it to gain in confidence and authority by gorging itself on one victory after another. As a result, the players developed a tremendous sense of familiarity in one another: something which was never better demonstrated than during the pre-planned 'Zigzag' line-out move which led to Jonny Wilkinson's decisive drop goal in the dying moments of the final.

But Woodward's strategy also effectively barred the door to new players emerging and becoming integrated in the team. Given the desperate, yearning need for England to at last break through their historical barriers, and end the suffocating strangehold of the southern hemisphere over the game, his approach was entirely understandable: he would be judged solely on the World Cup. Had his team failed there, it would hardly have been an excuse for him to take solace in having introduced new talent; just as it wasn't one either for John Mitchell of New Zealand, or Bernard Laporte of France, both of whose sides were comprehensively exposed by far more seasoned opponents at the semi-final stage.

But international rugby is such an unforgiving environment that, for any team to remain at or near the top, it must continually embrace new blood and refresh its approach. The 1995-7 All Blacks and 1997-8 Springboks both swept all before them with similarly settled teams to that which England enjoyed between 2001 and 2003: but in doing so, they became wholly reliant on a group of uniquely talented, experienced players. So when New Zealand's John Hart and South Africa's Nick Mallett were forced to replace individuals who either retired, were injured, or simply lost form, the consequences were calamitous: with the 1998 All Blacks and 1999 Springboks among the worst sides ever to represent their two proud, rich rugby nations. And Woodward's England, comfortably the oldest team ever to win the World Cup, predictably encountered precisely the same problem: when Martin Johnson, Neil Back and Jason Leonard retired, and Wilkinson and Richard Hill were injured, their replacements simply hadn't been readied for such a demanding stage.

To make matters worse, England's attacking approach had become steadily narrower and more conservative after reaching its zenith when Australia were humbled in Melbourne in June 2003: indeed, that they were nonetheless able to grasp the Cup having already commenced the long descent back to earth is not only an immense tribute to how accomplished the team had become, but also the state of fear and deference which had been established in opponents. That England, in spite of their notorious reputation for peaking between World Cups, rather than during them, could have developed such an aura that Australia were plainly proud of having pushed them so close on their own soil in the final was a total vindication of Woodward's insistence upon taking on the southern hemisphere as often as possible: and it would hardly be surprising if, with their opponents having won an incredible eleven such encounters in a row by the time they stepped out in Sydney, and four out of four against Australia, the expectation somewhere in the back of the Wallabies' minds was that all things being equal, it was about to become twelve on the spin too.

To some extent, England's triumph had, for all its undoubted magnificence, been something close to a brilliantly-executed con trick: with opponents fooled into believing in Woodward's team's inevitable omnipotence. But somewhere along the line, the attacking brio with which the coach had revolutionised his side's whole approach in the late 1990s and earlier part of this decade had been lost: and he himself had clearly run out of ideas. Having reached the peak, Woodward should have followed Johnson, Back and (before much longer) Leonard into retirement: instead, mistakenly, he held on. And while his rivals, most notably New Zealand's newly-appointed coach, Graham Henry, rapidly absorbed the lessons provided by the World Cup, and immediately set about putting them into practice, the newly annointed Sir Clive seemed, if anything, to become still more stubbornly wedded to his stereotyped conservatism: failing to introduce new players, and insisting on the same, tired old routines in training as his team fell into palpable decline.

First the team's long unbeaten record at Twickenham was lost, against Ireland; then, in a disastrous tour of the southern hemisphere during the summer, an exhausted set of players suddenly discovered how quickly they had fallen behind. Woodward seemed to try exactly the same thing as he had successfully done a year earlier: to take the All Blacks on up front with a forward-based game, before attempting a more all-court approach against the Wallabies; but his players were tired, and the world game had already moved on. England were thrashed in all three matches: and before long, their much-decorated coach would be gone.

But the problem was that precious time had already been wasted: for any new coach needs to be appointed at the start of a four-year cycle, not least because, should he prove demonstrably not up to the task, there is still the chance to dispense with his services after, say, two years before reviving under someone else. Thus Australia were able to recover from the bewildering ineptitude of Greg Smith's miserable period in charge between 1995 and 1997 by recruiting the brilliant, and still curiously underrated Rod Macqueen, who had a full two years in which to develop his hugely impressive 1999 World Cup winners. The Rugby Football Union would not be afforded any such luxury in the case of Robinson: for just as it would be premature in the extreme to wield the axe after only a year in charge, by the time two years had elapsed, it would already be dangerously close to the next global jamboree in France, with far too little time available for any successor to have a realistic hope of putting together a team capable of successfully defending the world crown.

As a result, Robinson's period in charge has been characterised by dithering indecision, not just by the coach himself, but those who appointed him too: never being clear whether to boldly rip up an old side and start anew, or follow Woodward's lead in prioritising the result over the performance. So the exciting Henry Paul was selected to face the Wallabies in November 2004, only to have his confidence shattered by being hauled off, extraordinarily, after just 24 minutes; and the Newcastle tyro, Mathew Tait, was given his debut in the cauldron of Cardiff's Millennium Stadium in February 2005, only to be scapegoated and dropped following the inept performance of his team: much to the understandable fury of his club coach, Rob Andrew. Similarly, heroes from the World Cup such as Jason Robinson, Mike Tindall and Ben Cohen have been at times persisted with, at others dropped, even when for much of the time their lack of form and confidence has been a constant.

Remarkably, even Lawrence Dallaglio was brought back into the fold last season: even though it represented an obvious look back, and was bound to undermine the position and authority of England's new captain, Martin Corry. Given such profoundly incoherent leadership from their coach, it should scarcely be surprising that his side have played so poorly for much of his spell at the helm: with the breathtaking ineptitude of their display against an equally shocking French side in March 2005 somehow surpassed when the two teams met again in this year's Six Nations, England falling to their heaviest defeat in Paris for thirty-four years.

But it must also be acknowledged that throughout, Robinson has been forced to endure a chaotic state of off-field affairs which would have sorely tested even a combination of Woodward, Henry and Bob Dwyer in their prime. In the years before the World Cup, Woodward had enjoyed an unprecedented degree of time with his players: some twenty-two training days in total, on top of the week leading up to each international. Given the narrowness of his side's triumph, he wanted this period increased to twenty-four days: but their clubs felt differently, successfully insisting on just sixteen days being allowed. This precipitated Woodward's resignation, and has hamstrung Robinson too: not least because the ferocious nature of English club rugby has resulted in injury after injury to key players.

The club versus country dispute, so familiar to followers of football in this country, reached its nadir when the RFU was taken to court over its highly provocative and utterly needless decision to, at short notice, organise a fourth international this autumn to coincide with the opening of Twickenham's new south stand. As a result, Robinson, assuming he remains in charge, will not be able to select his best players for both the remaining games of the autumn series against South Africa; for under the Elite Player Agreement which so incurred his predecessor's wrath, players can only be selected for a maximum of three internationals during the autumn. Given, if a player is involved for less than half a match, it is not considered to count towards the total, perhaps we may even witness the farcical situation of individuals hauled off after 39 minutes: but in any case, it is hardly a background in which any international coach can be expected to prosper.

With Andrew, formerly the RFU's most vociferous critic, appointed in the summer as its elite performance director (and in effect, Robinson's boss), there are some encouraging signs of peace breaking out: but nevertheless, the fact that Twickenham should have deemed yet another international to be necessary, and indeed, that Premiership rugby ludicrously continues while top players are away on England duty (a bizarre situation which effectively punishes those clubs which have either signed or developed the most accomplished individuals), is simply a demonstration of the greed which continues to undermine the English game - with the needs of the players shamefully treated as the lowest priority of all.

There is one further line of defence for Robinson to hold up to his many critics: put simply, England are enduring a particularly fallow period in terms of the availability of world-class, game-breaking players. Like all sports, rugby is cyclical: and just as Woodward, for all his qualities of leadership, vision and genius, could not possibly have succeeded without the mountainous talents of players such as Johnson, Wilkinson, Dallaglio, Back and Hill, it is almost impossible to see how his successor can be expected to emulate his achievements with a far more inferior group of players. Corry, for instance, is a wholehearted leader who gives everything to the cause: but this observer can scarcely recall a more limited player becoming England captain during the past two decades.

But it must still be seriously questioned whether Robinson has made the best of a bad job: and concluded, regrettably, that he has not. The 2005 Six Nations revealed such an array of problems within the team that Robinson should, surely, have drawn a line, given up the next World Cup as a hopeless cause, and thrown his weight fully behind a new generation of players looking to build for 2011: instead, fallibly, he stumbled on, not knowing whether to stick or to twist. And when this year's International Championship proved, if anything, even worse, the RFU, caught like a rabbit in the headlights by the proximity of the fast-approaching World Cup, took the easy way out by firing Robinson's defensive coach, Phil Larder, and kicking coach, Dave Alred, rather than the man himself.

A coach who stayed too long, and failed to plan for the future; a shambling, incompetent successor; an indecisive, greedy union; a brutally demanding domestic game; a dearth of world-class players. All of this has led to where England now find themselves: and never mind retaining the World Cup, the real question on current form is whether they will even qualify from their group next autumn. Mindbogglingly, reports this morning suggest the RFU will resist the urge to dismiss Robinson, which if so, would be unadulterated folly: not least because two games against a bedraggled, weakened Springbok team may yet lead to a perception of false paradise, with the coach subsequently retained through the Six Nations, by which point it will be far too late to make a change.

Whether by merely reshuffling the England coaching staff, with Andrew given the job, or by boldly looking overseas to Mallett, Warren Gatland or Eddie Jones, it is now imperative that Robinson's contract is terminated: and even more so that the RFU and the clubs find a way to stop killing the goose which laid the golden egg. Otherwise, it may prove many years indeed before England return to the summit which took so much effort to reach, and led to such public rejoicing on that increasingly distant November morning.

11 Comments:

At 9:38 am, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi shaun, some good points in there, but I think you spoil it going too far with some of the rhetorical flourishes. Particularly your criticisms of Corry (who Robinson has messed about with positionally continually) read like someone who watches a lot more football than rugby.

One has to suspect that Sir Clive would not have won us the next WC, but it seems to me that you're unduly critical of his relationships with younger players. Not only did he blood a lot more players than people tend to realise, but he also had a vision of an U-21 team that actually served some purpose.

Watching New Zealand, it becomes clear that the critical failure is in the off-field side of the game. Watching New Zealand you can see that they are: a bit more streetwise in the ruck and a bit more creative in offloading the ball. That doesn't explain their dominance though. The critical factor is they are simply, bigger stronger and faster. They've elevated the game to one where players play half the number of games ours do and spend the rest of the time in the gym and on the massage table.

We lost the sports science race and the club vs country battle would seem to be the main reason why.

If you don't believe me, you can look at France. Fundamentally, France are ahead of England (though still building to the WC.) If England and France played tomorrow (and the game went to form) we'd be expecting England to lose badly. France ruck quite well and certainly retain as much creativity as NZ. But, just like us, club vs country, they were physically blown off the park by Graham Henry's men.

(Of course, the refereeing situation is completely broken too, but that's a post for another day.)

 
At 10:06 am, Blogger Shaun said...

Can't argue with any of that: interesting stuff, thanks. And hey: I'd be the first to acknowledge that I couldn't possibly know as much, or write as well, as genuine afficionados like yourself.

On Corry: well, watching him make that inept forward pass during a rare breakaway on Saturday reminded me of him doing precisely the same thing during those frantic dying moments in Paris against the Springboks in '99. Back then, of course, we were arguably just as inflexible as in the Carling/Andrew/Moore era: albeit, we were now trying to throw it around too MUCH, rather than too little. But I do get the sense that he, like Robinson, is over-promoted: he's certainly been one of our better players over the past couple of years, but that isn't saying very much, and I've never been convinced, really.

I agree entirely on New Zealand's physical superiority, incidentally. Of course, they're considerably helped by picking off the finest talent from the Pacific islands (the rape of which ranks alongside Argentina's continued exclusion from both the Six Nations and Tri Nations as the biggest scandal in the world game). But you're right: the fact that they play so many fewer club games, and have an emphasis wholly on the international scene, must be a factor: though I'd suggest the awe they invoke in opponents is just as big a reason for their destruction of France on Saturday. Mental disintegration, as Steve Waugh would put it...

That's not to say I regard the All Blacks as certs for the World Cup, mind you: they're past masters at peaking at the wrong time, and you can never count out the French, especially not at home with a fervent crowd willing them on. Indeed, France are the kind of side who could lose to Argentina in the opening game before beating New Zealand in the final. And, for all their current struggles, don't count out the Aussies either: in a one-off semi against their trans-Tasman rivals, who knows?

Oh, and you're dead right about the refereeing: it damn near cost us the last World Cup, and remains a huge issue. Indeed, I doubt it'll ever change: as long as you have a northern and southern hemisphere, you'll always have two completely different interpretations...

Thanks again for your comments: and fingers crossed the RFU see sense, and put poor Andy out of his misery!

 
At 3:46 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Interesting comments Shaun but I'd like to clear up this Northern Hemisphere obsession with NZ 'picking off the finest talent from the Pacific islands'. As a former coach and manager until recently in Auckland club rugby, I kinda know what I'm talking about here.

It's true that some NZ-based Polynesian rugby players are recruited from the islands for clubs and provincial teams, but of the current All Blacks, I can only think of two Polynesians that *may* have come through this system, cousins Joe Rokocoko and Sitiveni Sivivatu. The rest are either NZ born or immigrated as children with their families.

Since the late 60's, there has been continual large migrations of Pacific Islanders to NZ, with the result that Auckland has the highest concentration of Pacific Islanders anywhere in the world.

Nowadays Polynesian New Zealanders totally dominate Auckland rugby - of all age groups - with their natural physical attributes. However this is not true of the rest of New Zealand and in recent years, the South Island 'mini-England' province of Canterbury have taken a stranglehold on the Super 12/14 competition without dominance of Pacific Island players.

And so too with the current All Blacks. The 2 most influential players in the side are white guys (McCaw and Carter), the front and second rows that destroyed the French pack are white, Tana Umaga's likely replacement will be the very pale Conrad Smith and the most consistent winger in the squad is Maori.

Another thing I'd like to address is that the All Blacks don't peak between World Cups. '03 and '99 were due to poor preparation, poor motivation and weak forward packs. The '95 All Blacks were superbly prepared but undone by food poisoning.

I feel the current squad have learnt the lessons of the past and are preparing beautifully for next year. They'll be tough to beat and I'm afraid it won't be a European team that does it, if it happens at all.

But back to England. No matter how good a coach Robinson is, a new face is needed to gee up the troops. Not for next year - too late now, but building for the next cup and winning 6N championships along the way...

 
At 4:34 pm, Blogger Shaun said...

Hi Dominic,

Hey, I do take your point, and appreciate your clarification of the situation too. But one minute, Joe Rokocoko is strutting his stuff for Fiji at the World Cup: the next, he's suddenly an All Black! How come? The explanation is that the NZRFU offers Pacific islanders a massive financial incentive to change nationality, is it not?

Indeed, I've come across many comments today from people saying that the New Zealand authorities invest a huge amount in encouraging Samoans, Fijians and Tongans to emigrate while in their teens, in order to help the All Black set-up. You must understand the moral difficulties which arise from this, surely? Because if you're indignant about the criticism NZ regularly gets, maybe you should go and talk to Bryan Williams, John Boe or Peter Fatialofa. See what THEY think about the situation.

Because the truth is that if, say, Samoa were able to select all players born in their country, and enjoyed, say, a quarter of the investment which is ploughed into English or New Zealand rugby, there'd be no point in even having a World Cup: they'd walk it, every time. And it is an absolute tragedy that the world's greatest rugby nation is continually denied the chance, for purely economic reasons, to prove it on the field.

This is beginning to come across as an anti-New Zealand rant: when in fact, it's a rant against the entire rugby establishment. They could, if they so wished, provide proper funding not just for the Pacific islands, but for Argentina - a magnificent rugby nation, which unlike so many other developing countries enjoys real, innate qualities in the pack too - as well. Indeed, if I were the IRB, one of my priorities would be to have the World Cup hosted jointly by Argentina and Uruguay: it'd be magnificent. THAT'S how you truly spread the game.

And what do we get instead? The Pumas continually locked out from the Tri Nations and Six Nations: with New Zealand, Australia and South Africa unbelievably and disgracefully opting simply to have another couple of games between themselves each year. And I'm sorry, but given how much the All Blacks have benefited from Samoa in particular, don't you find it repugnant that you haven't even deigned to play a Test match in Apia yet? Because I sure as heck do.

And when Japan - a country with magnificent rugby skill, and huge passion for the game - attempt to bid for the World Cup, they're denied it, not because of the inferiority of their bid, but because of all the usual smoke-filled room nonsense. And what do the NZRFU do when Australia dare to vote for what they consider the best bid (which, last I checked, is what EVERY IB member was supposed to be doing), rather than their Kiwi chums? Attempt to publicly chastise and scorn them. Fantastic.

On your point about the ABs not peaking in between World Cups, as I suggested: well, according to my (entirely unofficial) rankings, New Zealand were the world's leading side in 1995, 1996 and 1997; and also 2002 and much of 2003 too. Yet you didn't win either the '99 or '03 World Cups. And was it REALLY down to poor preparation and motivation? That's not what the pundits (not just in New Zealand, but throughout the world) thought before or during the tournament.

Actually, all that happened was the Blacks came up against a French team who would have blown away anyone on the planet that day: they produced arguably the finest display of rugby ever seen. That's just monumental bad luck - but it's what can always happen in a one-off game.

And in '03: yup, your forward pack WAS weak - but again, it hadn't stopped you gorging on the Aussies and South Africans earlier in the year. All that happened was you met a Wallaby team on the point of elimination from its own tournament, against its fiercest rivals: an intolerable situation, and one which they were bound to rise up in. Once more, something that can happen in a one-off game.

I absolutely agree about '95, though: that was one of the greatest sporting injustices of all time. Indeed, in the late 90s, we endured a frightening period whereby the rugby, football and cricket World Cups ALL ended dubiously: rugby thanks to the All Blacks being poisoned, football because of the Ronaldo affair, cricket because Pakistan were widely alleged to have thrown the game.

But to get back to my point: I've never really bought into the second-guessing of either John Hart or John Mitchell. Clive Woodward could easily have ended up on the losing side in the final; ditto Bob Dwyer in the '91 quarter-finals; ditto, even, Rod Macqueen in the '99 semis. Very fine lines separate glory from despair. And in a sport where, at international level, ferocity still produces results, there's every chance New Zealand could still come unstuck against France or even Australia next year: no matter how much you're dominating at the moment, it's a World CUP, not a league contest. Anything can happen: and may the best team on the day win!

 
At 2:06 am, Anonymous Anonymous said...

What pundits Shaun? Look, It was poor prep. that saw Leon MacDonald and others playing out of position at centre in such a crucial game as the '03 semi. It was poor motivation that saw the AB's half asleep against sides they recently demolished in '03 and '99 (although you're right - maybe even today's ABs would have struggled in THAT '99 semi).

But the Polynesian issue?

Again I say by example, Super 12/14 dominance by the Crusaders has nothing to do with Polynesian poaching. So how has NZ benefitted by this?

I'd like to see the credibilty of the sources that say "New Zealand authorities invest a huge amount ...blah blah" I *DO* know what BeeGee and Fats think about it. They both ardently support the same rich and powerful Ponsonby club that dominates Auckland Club rugby. So yes, they take scouting trips to Samoa. I know some Secondary schools do it too. But it isn't a widespread NZ practice. And I do know. There are probably more scouts representing Queensland, NSW, Japanese clubs, and yes, European clubs than NZ scouts. Oh yes, a close frind of mine is just such an agent so again I know these things.

Many NZ rugby institutions just can't afford to fork out the wealth you allege to the Island players. Lord knows the NZRFU has it's hands full trying to pay competitive rates to in-demand players as it is without doling out money to buy raw-boned players from the islands.

It happens. But it's not the reason the All Blacks remain as dominant as they are. None of the current Polynesian All Blacks came through that route except *possibly* Sivivatu. I was mistaken about Rokocoko - and so were you, he came to NZ as a 5 year old and never played for Fiji.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Rokocoko

And sure there have been magnificent Samoan players in the All Blacks over the years, but name me one who was 'poached' and not a result of the wider social dynamic of family migration to NZ followed by a rugby upbringing through the schhol and club system: BeeGee Williams? Michael Jones? Inga Tuigamala? Frank Bunce? Nope. Sure, Buncey played for WS before the ABs but he and the others still grew up and learnt their rugby in NZ. So if anything, Western Samoa was *benefitting* from being able to choose players of Samoan heritage with NZ rugby development until the IRB said that players could only play for one country. So who do the NZ-based Polynesians prefer to play for now?

Isn't it more likely that Northern Hemisphere scribes and critics (yes Stephen Jones, Brendan Gallagher and Eddie Butler, I'm looking at you) simply can't stand that little old New Zealand continues to dominate the game they love (and I know we're a little arrogant about it sometimes)?

It comes down to money for the Island game. And that's not a NZ problem, it's an IRB problem.


.d

 
At 4:15 am, Blogger Shaun said...

Hi again Dominic!

What 'pundits'? Well, ok: who amongst the New Zealand rugby writers went into the '03 and '99 World Cups fearful for your chances? If there hadn't been such widespread confidence in, for example, 1999, John Hart wouldn't have been treated so disgracefully on his return home, would he?

Ditto in '03: I smile when England are constantly recalled as having been the pre-tournament favourites: actually, we weren't. By a small margin, the All Blacks were. Bear in mind that, in the case of both tournaments, there should have been a lot more doubt expressed generally about your prospects: in '99, you'd just been comprehensively walloped in Sydney, and thanks to the disasters endured the previous year, had hardly had time to develop the kind of cussed streetwiseness which any top international team needs in order to succeed. And in '03, England had played abysmally on tour, had been down to 13 men at one point, and STILL managed to win: yet the reaction of the Kiwi media wasn't so much alarm as just to fling abuse at the 'white orcs on steroids'.

Moreover, although you then thrashed the Aussies and Boks away from home, when both sides adopted a much tighter, more conservative gameplan in the return games, you were a lot less convincing. So yes, the warning signs were there: but were they being widely expressed in New Zealand? You'll know far more about that than me, of course: so tell me, I'm interested to know!

Incidentally, here's an omen which may be of concern. At every single World Cup to date, the favourites (Australia in '87, NZ in '91, Aus in '95, NZ in '99, NZ in '03) have not only failed to lift the trophy, but haven't even got to the final; and similarly, on every occasion, the SECOND favourites have ended up triumphant. You have to be an accomplished side, and go in with realistic expectation of victory - but if you're no.1, as New Zealand, barring something unforeseeable, once again will be, you're there to be shot at by a team with lower expectations, but capable of a brilliant one-off display, eg. France in '87 and '99, and Australia in '03, none of whom were able to do it again the following week.

And even the draw is always significant too. The moment I saw the '07 draw, I ruled out the Wallabies' chances immediately: Wales in Cardiff will be awkward enough, but to have to face either South Africa or (even with all our current problems) England in the quarters even before meeting the ABs will just take too much out of them. Similarly, England were screwed before the tournament even kicked off in '95 by knowing that, whatever happened, we were stuck facing the Southern Hemisphere giants one after another in the knockout stage.

And consider this: for all the 'poor prep' you mention, scrutinise the '03 draw again. Going into the quarters, both England and Australia were in a position where they knew that, no matter how poorly they played, there was no way they could possibly lose. Whereas both New Zealand and France had games which, theoretically at least, they COULD lose: Ireland had won 3 of the last 4 against Les Bleus, and the Springboks, however awful they were at the time, were still the Springboks: never to be written off. So both England and the Aussies played within themselves, and went through; and both the ABs and France played superbly, but took too much out of themselves. Eng and Aus were bound to be fresher for the semis, and prospered as a result: and indeed, England were then fresher for the final too, having not had to produce such an epic, one-off performance as the Wallabies had.

I'm rambling now, I know: but even such a simple thing as the draw has a huge bearing on things. For what it's worth, I never believed England would win the '03 WC throughout the four years leading up to it, and to this day, still think New Zealand would've beaten us in the final if we'd met. But, after an initial reaction of despair, and putting my head back under the covers when it became clear midway through the first semi that those damn Aussies were about to put you out (I'd watched them against Argentina, Ireland and Scotland, thought they were a laughing stock, and believed they were only still in the competition becuase they were at home), I suddenly had visions of Martin Johnson leaping around with the trophy! It was like I could see into the future: I KNEW the Wallabies would be sated by beating you, and wouldn't be able to do it again.

On the Polynesian issue: first, a heads up. In my incompetence, I got Rocokoco confused with Caucau: d'oh! I would say it goes to show how dangerous it is for me to write about rugby without being a true expert: but then, when you consider Stephen Jones' line yesterday about it being "a decade on from the Battle of Nantes" (spot the mistake), hey, maybe I can make a career of this yet! ;-) But sorry about that: total blunder on my part.

More generally though, and while I absolutely accept you know an awful lot more about this than I do, the issue is one of pure economics: islanders being tempted away to NZ by the prospect of a far better quality of life. And yes, that is indeed an IB problem - but it still doesn't explain why you haven't even played Samoa in Apia yet. And while of course you had every right to bid for the 2011 WC, what does it say when the Kiwi rugby authorities, instead of congratulating, commiserating and encouraging the Japanese to try again for next time, just bleat about the ARU actually showing a bit of vision and backing Japan rather than their regional mates?

You are, though, right to point out the many marvellous aspects of New Zealand rugby which have nothing to do with the Pacific islands. It's the only place on the planet where rugby is indeed a religion: not even Wales can match the fervour for the game in NZ. And the fact that you took the game into a whole new exciting era in '95 (before being cheated out of your just desserts), and have continued to try ever-faster, more ambitious, more physical football ever since, deserves ALL our respect and gratitude: New Zealand were the favourites in '03 because your potential was considerably higher than England's (albeit we were more consistent); and this clearly remains so today. If the ABs win the World Cup playing the kind of rugby they are at present, the whole sport will be the better for it: no question about it.

But (and you knew there was a but coming, I'll bet), what is also required is a wee bit more humility. Confidence involves knowing you can do something, not shouting your mouth off about it, and just going out there and doing it; arrogance involves thinking you can do something when you actually can't, mouthing off to all and sundry about how good you are, and then coming a spectacular cropper. Too often, NZ fans, players and even coaches (step forward, John Hart) have fallen into the second category. If England continually dominated the game, but somehow kept failing to win the big cigar, we'd be ridiculed: and equally, NZ need to do their talking on the pitch, not off it.

Because it's that arrogance (coupled with the self-righteous notion that no All Black player can ever do wrong: look at the reaction in your country after Umaga's speartackle on O'Driscoll) which so cheeses off writers like Jones. He was abused right, left and centre for ridiculing your lack of emphasis on the forwards in the late 90s and early part of this decade - but he was right, wasn't he? So much so that you seem to have learned from it, and put your deficiencies up front right at last.

My one remaining doubt concerns your continued tendency to take your foot off the pedal in key games, rather than truly go for the jugular. I knew you wouldn't win the '99 WC when Scotland came back at you in the second half of the QF: they should've been obliterated. It was a doubt which existed in my mind before the '95 final too: you may have played fantastic rugby at times, but you'd also leaked a lot of points, and were vulnerable against a strong defensive team who closed you down and kept things tight. And even at Twickenham last week, when you had a chance to truly humiliate us, we were able to emerge with at least a shred of credibility intact. You need to lose this tendency to lack concentration and intensity at times: otherwise, you will always be susceptible to an upset in a one-off game.

Phew! I think I'm almost done: hope you haven't passed out after reading my coma-inducing waffle... Oh, one last thing: Stephen Jones is a cheeky, provocative little bugger, who constantly flies the flag for the northern hemisphere, is self-evidently biased and often plain wrong too. But there's nothing wrong I can see with Eddie Butler - and if you want a top northern hemisphere scribe, read what Stuart Barnes has to say. He's absolutely brilliant: continually thinks outside the box, and is never afraid to rock the boat: especially where England are concerned. Give him a try: that's my advice, anyway...

Thanks again for your comments, Dominic: I always love debating this stuff, and you've certainly provoked my thoughts, as the frightening length of this response shows. All the best to the ABs for the 2nd Test: meanwhile, at Twickenham, the battle of two bold men fighting over a comb will prove, um, interesting I guess... ;-)

 
At 2:26 pm, Blogger PRBetHeads said...

Stephen Jones is a god amoungst men, Shaun. The one true and brave voice of rugby journalism.

 
At 2:44 pm, Blogger Shaun said...

Jones is brave, definitely - and an absolutely vital voice against the game's bloated, corrupt administrators. But he's also the man who persistently ridiculed coaches like Mitchell and Laporte who spoke of 'development': as far as Jones was concerned, the only real development was in winning. And he was right, as far as winning the Cup was concerned; but it's also a strategy which has led to all kinds of trouble since.

And have we had a 'mea culpa' from Jones? Nope: in fact, he's STILL ranting on and on with his 'winning is everything' mantra. Which I'm sorry, just isn't going to get us anywhere given the depth of the problems the team now has. Stuart Barnes understands this, and realises how much needs to change if we're ever to get back to where we once were: Jones does not.

Oh, one other thing: is he a journalist, or a cheerleader? Because the guy consistently overhypes England's chances: he was at it again prior to both the NZ AND SA games at the '99 WC. It was absolutely absurd that he seriously thought we'd beat the ABs, but he did; and I knew what a mountainous task the defending champion Boks represented only four days on from Fiji. But he, apparently, didn't.

Oh, and he then compounded this by totally writing off France before their semi with NZ - and while I realise what followed was an earthquake of monumental proportions, I'd felt something in the wind, both in Les Bleus' second half display against the Pumas, and in the ABs totally tailing off against Scotland. I'm not saying SJ should've tipped France - but he made himself look a right plonker by totally overlooking them.

 
At 2:28 am, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The problem with Stephen Jones is that he too frequently allows the chip on his shoulder about New Zealand rugby get in the way of his journalistic standards. It is a standing joke here in NZ that no matter how well the AB's play, SJ will never have anything good to say about them. If he is to be believed, we only ever win because we cheat or because the ref was on our side or because the other team played way below par. In his recent column for example, after the AB's demolition of France in Lyon, he chose to reminisce about a 20 year old gane that the AB's lost rather than on congratulating the All Blacks on a commanding performance. He seems unable to say anything positive about southern hemisphere rugby without counter balancing it with some snide disparaging (and often inacurate) remark. Hardly a paragon of journalistic virtue, and certainly no 'god among men'

 
At 4:26 am, Blogger mod said...

Amen to that DigiKiwi!

 
At 1:32 am, Blogger Shaun said...

Hey, I don't disagree with the last two comments. He's been practically in denial about England's problems for years: refusing to give the ABs any credit at all when you obliterated us in Summer 2004, for example, and leading me to stare at my computer screen in disbelief when, after we were humiliated by the Pumas, he chose to link England's troubles with those of France, suggesting that Robinson and Laporte were in the same boat. Which is absolutely ridiculous: for while Les Bleus certainly have a huge amount of work to do, they've hardly collapsed in the way the world champions (doesn't that epithet sound absolutely ridiculous now, incidentally?) have.

He's going to have a problem at the World Cup now: barring a miracle over the next nine months, how can he possibly overhype such an appalling English team? That said though, Jones was continually abused in both Australia and New Zealand for years for his constant ridicule of candyfloss Super 12 rugby - but the '03 RWC proved him triumphantly correct. New Zealand, at least, would now appear to have sorted out their deficiencies up front, and look a complete, and thoroughly intimidating side: but while I certainly wouldn't go as far as SJ does in giving HIM the credit for this long-overdue change in attitudes, he does deserve some plaudits for being proven correct, doesn't he?

And anyway, to repeat: if you want a good northern hemisphere writer, give Stuart Barnes a try. I fully understand your objections where Jones is concerned - but Barnes is a breath of fresh air, and thinks continually outside the box.

 

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